Scope of the Operation
In modern-day, Information Warfare provides an attractive non-lethal option to warfare. It allows the state to extend its policy into an area in which a foreign government is unwilling to accommodate. Influence Operations, in general, may target the mass population, adversary leadership coalitions, select groups, and networks, or individuals (Larson & United States, 2009). Those operations’ outcome can be an attitude change, influencing the conclusions of individuals, coalitions, and groups.
Mass audiences
If one wanted to conduct a campaign aiming to change a specific narrative in a relatively large population, they would need to ensure their message is channeled correctly and not lost in the noise. One of the factors which may contribute to the choice of methods is the availability of resources.
For well-resourced operations, one may be able to subvert key members of the media, which will allow them to set the agenda easily, introduce information meant to prime the population for later use, and even frame the messages and cultivate the audience. Besides, they can target dissenting voices and use the Spiral of Silence. They can potentially turn blog posts and even all the viewers of a cable news channel into an echo chamber.
Looking at low resource operations, they will need to build a base before going mainstream, which can be achieved by influencing small groups first. Those can be influenced through setting the agenda via the introduction of a set of topics, possibly seeking saturation, and by second-order cultivation effect by introducing certain seemingly unrelated statements which will pass by the critical thinking of the target audience and be lodged in as a judgement, which can later be built upon. Those will have a priming effect on the group.
Simultaneously with this Priming, one could prune dissenting opinions by targeting particular posts that are out of the acceptable envelope. Those positive and negative stimulation activities will form echo chambers consisting of different subgroups of participants. Then those nuclei can be connected to expand and dominate the network. The idea is to use the Spiral of Silence to silence all descending opinions using those groups as a force multiplier. At the same time, those groups can also promote ideas or set the agenda for the larger network.
Groups and networks
Groups form for a reason. It is crucial to take into account the reasons the target group exists. This task is easier for formal groups than for informal, it may take additional time to understand what is behind the group’s cohesion and the ways the group works. Based on that understanding and the end goal, different methods can be used.
If the end goal is altering the group’s opinion, a way to achieve it is to infiltrate it by acting as the group members and contributing to the echo chamber effect. Once the infiltrator gains social influence – de facto becomes an opinion leader, they will be able to introduce information via the Two-step Flow and Agenda Setting for other campaigns by inflating, within reason, the importance of specific topics. They can also use their exposure for Priming by introducing auxiliary topics or facts in their discussions before those topics are relevant.
The next order of effects a single infiltrator can use are Framing and Cultivation, but using them efficiently requires collaboration with other users. The most controlled form would be to insert multiple infiltrators who, over time, after being accepted, work uniformly and coordinate their activity. Using that framework, it would be easy to start silencing “dissenting voices” using Spiral of Silence. With the proper synchronization, Cultivation effects can be powerful, and they can frame the narrative as they needed.
Suppose the desired effect is to weaken and fragment the target group. In that case, it can be determined if there is a topic that divides the group and covertly solicits opposing opinions, leading to the creation of two thought groups that will form their Echo Chambers, if left unchecked. Thus the initial covert insertion, will progress to fragment the group. Another way to approach group influence given fewer resources for infiltration but more time is to create one or more external groups utilizing the Echo Chamber effect and introduce them to the targeted group.
The options for media effects are relatively large with groups, but it is also essential to understand the group dynamics, which are not always apparent.
Individuals
Influencing individuals requires the highest fidelity in both understanding the target and providing inputs. It is essential to correctly evaluate and assess the individual in order to select the best approach. This process includes current values and beliefs – stated or not, and cognitive ability, education, and knowledge, decision, and emotional support network.
If cultivation effects are used, it is important to know which are the chronically accessible beliefs, as they will be easily retrieved from memory to support building new conclusions. Similarly, when they are in an under-resourced state so that information can be introduced and cause erroneous conclusions or reinforce framing. Understanding their habits, social network, and patterns of behavior can be used to insert information for Priming and Agenda Setting purposes.
A good evaluation of their exposure to specific knowledge, information, and advisors can be used to frame the situation indirectly. It can also be used to facilitate the Two-step Flow of information by influencing or subverting people whose opinions they rely on.
<>With the individual, it is clear that many of the operations requiring complex systems, like the Spiral of Silence, Echo Chambers, Gatekeeping, will not be applied directly. However, they will still be subject to them as a member of a larger group. One example would be the head of an arbitrary country who is a unique figure and will be targeted as an individual. However, taken in the world context, this person is one of over 200 people in a similar position.Just like with the other processes, this one is subject to a feedback loop and would require adjustments in the course of the operation.
Adversary coalition leadership
The people comprising this group are highly sophisticated, with above-average critical thinking skills and usually have long experience in those types of affairs, so as a result, the toolset for directly influencing their decisions is mostly not present in the media effects chest. Furthermore, this group has an interesting dynamic as it exhibits qualities pertinent to both individuals and groups, which we already covered. And while it is difficult to directly control the group, media effects can be used to create leverage.
In a similar vein, the offensive force may strengthen internal groups by using their alliance with at least some of the sought-after goals. Furthermore, those internal groups can be infiltrated, and methods presented in the following section - “influencing groups” can be used to gain control over them.
Similarly, the offending force may influence opposing groups, as well. This access will allow for some of the opinions of the “aligned” groups to be balanced if needed, but, more importantly, it will allow for a greater fragmentation of the constituency over which the leadership presides.
Those strategies fall in the group of Echo Chamber effect. However, the dynamic within each group will also use the Spiral of Silence, Priming, Framing, and the full set of media effects used when groups are controlled.
Regardless, if the target is the decision-makers or constituency, which can then be used for leverage, it is crucial to conduct a thorough evaluation of each of the people involved and the entire situation.
In this section, we covered what can be targeted – from individuals to larger groups in society, and while we touched on some of the theories, it was mostly in passing. The following post will do a comparative analysis of how different theories apply to different groups.
RECOMMENDED READING
Larson, E. V., & United States (Eds.). (2009). Foundations of effective influence operations: A framework for enhancing Army capabilities. Rand Arroyo Center.